Sunday, February 13, 2005
The following is an extract from Jamie McGuinness's website. Jamie is a successful expedition organiser, mountaineer ( with a few 8000m peaks under his belt including Everest North Ridge ), and author or trekking books. His views are his own and do not represent any other organisation's views. However, it offers a contrarian view of the recent takeover of the Nepal government by the King. Jamie lives for most of the year in Kathmandu,when not out in the field.
*** The King has decisively taken over ***
Kathmandu is functioning normally, indeed the situation looks more stable and better than for the last 6 years. I can see no reason for anybody to cancel their Nepal plans.
That said, I expect Nepal to be in the headlines again around Valentines day.
With some 43 (corrupt and/or incompetent) politicians under house arrest and King directing the Government the mood in Kathmandu is one of jubilance and optimism, this long overdue move was absolutely necessary to save the country - literally - and finally Nepal might be ruled by people who actually care.
Despite the tone in the foreign news papers virtually everyone in Kathmandu supports the king's move however the talk must be followed by action and everyone is watching closely, hoping. I have yet to meet anyone in Kathmandu who is against his move - and this is also easily measured, the Maoists had called a second three day strike; yet everything is running completely normally, apart from mobile telephones.
In the broad political chess game the King stood up for the people with a vigorous, well planned and constitutional takeover but is risking everything, necessarily so for the sake of the country. Make no mistake this is an major escalation, instead of an energy-sapping three way struggle between the King, the feckless politicians and the Maoists, there are now only two combatants. Democracy is not dead, only necessarily suspended, and being long used to feudal systems, few Nepalis have any problem with that.
Now the Maoists have been directly challenged with a fight to the death, something they have planned for from the beginning; they have only ever used peace talks to bolster their position, deceiving, lying, believing their aim was the greater good and so justified taking any path to get there - that is why they use child soldiers and are fortifying rural schools.
They must be quaking in their boots though as their position is weak, bogged down in a muddy reality rather than in ideological high ground. With a good propaganda campaign the army is in a position to actually win the hearts and minds of the people and militarily the army is far superior - the Maoists have little ammunition for a start, and no AK-47's. The actual hard core Maoist forces are small, if organized, and the actively sympathetic will switch to the King's - the country's - side with only the smallest carrot and the lightest stick. Swing voters, if you like, all they need is security; admittedly tough to provide, and the whole 'revolution' could just fizzle.
Kathmandu is won - it was never lost - it is the hill areas that need to be drawn back and this is where the toughest challenges lie. Does the army have enough skills? Despite the army's overseas peace keeping experience recent history suggests not, but this is where the king can again show that decisiveness, justice and morality can win the country. We certainly offer our wholehearted support.
Background
Since the arrival of democracy in 1991 successive governments were feudal in behavior, grossly corrupt, shortsighted and narrow-minded and by neglecting basic development allowed a Maoist insurgency to start in 1996. As the stakes were raised to the point of a gun against their head, not one of the main political leaders could get their fingers out of the honey pot, proving time and time again they were utterly, hopelessly incapable of solving the country's multitude of problems. The ordinary Nepali people have suffered immensely. Thankfully, finally, 1 Feb 2005, the King has decisively taken over.
Nepal security assessment
I completely revised this in February 2005 to reflect the new realities here in Nepal; until proven otherwise I see conditions improving.
The troubles in Nepal must be put in perspective. Trekking sensibly in Nepal is still MUCH safer than trekking-travelling around the USA or Italy, the incidence of theft-robbery in Nepal is still far, far lower than tourist-friendly New Zealand! Read the travel warnings for some of these countries.
Nepal has and will be in the headlines but very few if any incidents actually have any impact on you as a trekker-tourist, although there are the occasional delays caused by transport strikes.
Trekking safety
The Maoist leadership has regularly publicly announced that tourists are welcome to visit Nepal - will that change? I don't think so. The chances of you getting caught between the army and Maoists is marginally higher - but from a point of almost zero risk previously.
The Everest region from Lukla and above is COMPLETELY SAFE for trekking, no Maoists at all. It is COMPLETELY SAFE for American, British and Belgian trekkers too, despite the government warnings. In other areas it is possible that Maoists meet the group and they ask (politely initially) for a donation, see the Trailblazer guide book updates section.
So should you come trekking in Nepal with us? If you are joining an Everest region trek, definitely. We fly in; no buses. For other regions don't let the headlines put you off but do discuss with us.
For the October-November season we suggest you book your flights now. We welcome bookings now and always have a "plan b" - but equally you are welcome to express interest and book in May-June after watching developments.
The UK Ambassador says
"The fact remains that not a single foreigner has been kidnapped or killed as a result of the eight-year-old insurgency. During that time, the country has received more than three million visitors. The risk of being a victim of Maoist violence is clearly much lower than the risks of going trekking, mountaineering, rafting, or simply going in a bus," said Keith Bloomfield, 57, the British Ambassador to Nepal. "The threat is fairly small."
Strikes - 'Bandhs'
These were an annoyance in 2004 except during peak trekking season (October-November), because it coincides with the major festival season. Now Kathmandu will not suffer strikes but out on the road to Tibet for example it is harder to say, I will update in March.
Kathmandu
Everyone who spends time here wonders what all the fuss is about, Kathmandu is functioning normally. It is true that the Maoists did bomb a government office in Thamel but they still have never and will target tourists directly. Walking alone at night in Kathmandu is still surprisingly safe; I wouldn't do that in San Francisco.
*** The King has decisively taken over ***
Kathmandu is functioning normally, indeed the situation looks more stable and better than for the last 6 years. I can see no reason for anybody to cancel their Nepal plans.
That said, I expect Nepal to be in the headlines again around Valentines day.
With some 43 (corrupt and/or incompetent) politicians under house arrest and King directing the Government the mood in Kathmandu is one of jubilance and optimism, this long overdue move was absolutely necessary to save the country - literally - and finally Nepal might be ruled by people who actually care.
Despite the tone in the foreign news papers virtually everyone in Kathmandu supports the king's move however the talk must be followed by action and everyone is watching closely, hoping. I have yet to meet anyone in Kathmandu who is against his move - and this is also easily measured, the Maoists had called a second three day strike; yet everything is running completely normally, apart from mobile telephones.
In the broad political chess game the King stood up for the people with a vigorous, well planned and constitutional takeover but is risking everything, necessarily so for the sake of the country. Make no mistake this is an major escalation, instead of an energy-sapping three way struggle between the King, the feckless politicians and the Maoists, there are now only two combatants. Democracy is not dead, only necessarily suspended, and being long used to feudal systems, few Nepalis have any problem with that.
Now the Maoists have been directly challenged with a fight to the death, something they have planned for from the beginning; they have only ever used peace talks to bolster their position, deceiving, lying, believing their aim was the greater good and so justified taking any path to get there - that is why they use child soldiers and are fortifying rural schools.
They must be quaking in their boots though as their position is weak, bogged down in a muddy reality rather than in ideological high ground. With a good propaganda campaign the army is in a position to actually win the hearts and minds of the people and militarily the army is far superior - the Maoists have little ammunition for a start, and no AK-47's. The actual hard core Maoist forces are small, if organized, and the actively sympathetic will switch to the King's - the country's - side with only the smallest carrot and the lightest stick. Swing voters, if you like, all they need is security; admittedly tough to provide, and the whole 'revolution' could just fizzle.
Kathmandu is won - it was never lost - it is the hill areas that need to be drawn back and this is where the toughest challenges lie. Does the army have enough skills? Despite the army's overseas peace keeping experience recent history suggests not, but this is where the king can again show that decisiveness, justice and morality can win the country. We certainly offer our wholehearted support.
Background
Since the arrival of democracy in 1991 successive governments were feudal in behavior, grossly corrupt, shortsighted and narrow-minded and by neglecting basic development allowed a Maoist insurgency to start in 1996. As the stakes were raised to the point of a gun against their head, not one of the main political leaders could get their fingers out of the honey pot, proving time and time again they were utterly, hopelessly incapable of solving the country's multitude of problems. The ordinary Nepali people have suffered immensely. Thankfully, finally, 1 Feb 2005, the King has decisively taken over.
Nepal security assessment
I completely revised this in February 2005 to reflect the new realities here in Nepal; until proven otherwise I see conditions improving.
The troubles in Nepal must be put in perspective. Trekking sensibly in Nepal is still MUCH safer than trekking-travelling around the USA or Italy, the incidence of theft-robbery in Nepal is still far, far lower than tourist-friendly New Zealand! Read the travel warnings for some of these countries.
Nepal has and will be in the headlines but very few if any incidents actually have any impact on you as a trekker-tourist, although there are the occasional delays caused by transport strikes.
Trekking safety
The Maoist leadership has regularly publicly announced that tourists are welcome to visit Nepal - will that change? I don't think so. The chances of you getting caught between the army and Maoists is marginally higher - but from a point of almost zero risk previously.
The Everest region from Lukla and above is COMPLETELY SAFE for trekking, no Maoists at all. It is COMPLETELY SAFE for American, British and Belgian trekkers too, despite the government warnings. In other areas it is possible that Maoists meet the group and they ask (politely initially) for a donation, see the Trailblazer guide book updates section.
So should you come trekking in Nepal with us? If you are joining an Everest region trek, definitely. We fly in; no buses. For other regions don't let the headlines put you off but do discuss with us.
For the October-November season we suggest you book your flights now. We welcome bookings now and always have a "plan b" - but equally you are welcome to express interest and book in May-June after watching developments.
The UK Ambassador says
"The fact remains that not a single foreigner has been kidnapped or killed as a result of the eight-year-old insurgency. During that time, the country has received more than three million visitors. The risk of being a victim of Maoist violence is clearly much lower than the risks of going trekking, mountaineering, rafting, or simply going in a bus," said Keith Bloomfield, 57, the British Ambassador to Nepal. "The threat is fairly small."
Strikes - 'Bandhs'
These were an annoyance in 2004 except during peak trekking season (October-November), because it coincides with the major festival season. Now Kathmandu will not suffer strikes but out on the road to Tibet for example it is harder to say, I will update in March.
Kathmandu
Everyone who spends time here wonders what all the fuss is about, Kathmandu is functioning normally. It is true that the Maoists did bomb a government office in Thamel but they still have never and will target tourists directly. Walking alone at night in Kathmandu is still surprisingly safe; I wouldn't do that in San Francisco.
